Reaching a boiling point in the Prince of Wales conference

These are very interesting times in the NHL. Here's the eastern playoff picture as I see it with 3-4 games left for pretty much everyone:

Only Montreal and Pittsburgh are truly safe.

Washington (88 points) is two points behind Boston (90) and Carolina (90) for the final playoff spot. Washington and Carolina have three games left and have the same schedule, including one game against one another. For simplicity, let's assume Carolina and Washington get the maximum four points against Florida and Tampa Bay. That means that regardless of the outcome of the Washington-Carolina game, Carolina would win the division by virtue of having more wins (first tie breaker). i.e. Washington needs another Carolina slip up to win the division.

Anything less than 94 points for either Washington or Carolina starts reducing their odds dramatically. Here are the other contenders:

Boston (90 points, 4 games), Philadelphia (91 points, 3 games), Rangers (91 points, 5 games), Ottawa (92 points, 3 games), New Jersey (93 points, 4 games). Buffalo has 84 points and four games remaining (Boston twice, Toronto, and Montreal). The fact that they play Boston twice helps them but they pretty much have to run the table and have either Washington or Carolina falter against Florida and/or Tampa or Boston implode. That’s tough slogging. I assume they are out.

To keep things interesting, let’s assume 94 points is the target (as an aside, who would have thought that possible two weeks ago the way Boston and Philly were imploding):

• Boston needs five of eight points because Washington would have more wins if they tied at 94. They play Buffalo twice, Jersey, and Ottawa. The first Buffalo game is today, if they win that Buffalo probably lies down for the last one because they would then be officially out. Jersey has struggled of late as has Ottawa so you have to figure they can get this done (e.g. beat Buffalo twice and take one point from Jersey or Ottawa). That said, they are depleted and in their first three games, their opponents are also playing for something so this will be tough.
• Philadelphia will lose a tie break on wins if they land at 94 points so need to win two of three. They play the Devils once and Pittsburgh twice. They owned Pittsburgh earlier this year but not in the past two meetings and Pittsburgh is finally (more or less) healthy again. This should be great hockey as these two teams hate each other. It's been great watching Mike Richards put this team on his back but can he pull them through this? Tough.
• The Rangers are cresting at the right time and with five games left, you would think they are in. Pittsburgh twice, Islanders twice, and Jersey. It shouldn't be an issue with the way they are playing but it’s not inconceivable to see them lose twice to the Penguins and once to NJ and then need three of four points against the Islanders who would love to play spoilers against the cross town (sort of) rivals. I think this scenario is unlikely; the Rangers are playing good hockey and in my view, are in a similar class to the Habs and the Pens.
• Ottawa need three points from their last three games because they would lose the head to head tie breakers with the Caps (Washington swept them). They play Montreal, Toronto, and Boston and have looked pretty bad in the last three games against all three. It's not inconceivable they miss, which would be a massive story (I’ll stop here, the Sens need their own entry when I have more time).
• Jersey needs two points in their last four to be safe. They could get in on goal differential against Washington but it would be tight given that Washington is currently +3 and they are +9. They play the Islanders next and then Boston, Philly, and the Rangers. They better beat the Islanders or they end up in everyone else's dogfight.
  
  

Regardless of how things shake out, it's pretty cool that with 3-4 games left only two teams have clinched are there are reasonable scenarios for any of the current six that are in dropping out. It’s a good time to be a hockey fan.

From my vantage point I hope the Capitals make it in because I love the energy with which they’re playing and I want to see Ovechkin in the playoffs. If I had my choice, I’d have Boston miss because I can’t stand the way they play (and I’ve never really liked the Bruins) but you have to feel for them with the injuries they’ve had so I won’t get worked up either way. I think if I had to wager, I’d have Philly or Ottawa missing out. I wonder of I could get odds?

Dog out